29 November 2023

2023 a year of headwinds, inflation, and continued rate hikes


GILES RAFFERTY, Corporate Communications and Media Advisor


It was in early May of 2023 that the World health organization announced Covid-19 was no longer a global health emergency. We are, however, still working through the economic disruption caused by COVID, compounded by other significant geo-political events, such as the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has helped to drive post-pandemic inflation to multi-decade highs in most of the world.

In an attempt to rein in Australian inflation, we have seen the Reserve Bank of Australia raise the cash rate by a quarter of a percent five times during 2023.  And while the tempo and quantum of these raises does not match the eight hikes during 2022, their impact on some already stretched household budgets is very much being felt. In turn access to growth capital has been restrained, consumer discretionary stocks are feeling the impact of household belt tightening, and the construction sector is experiencing building approvals at 11-year lows during 2023.

Away from the world of business and finance the success of the Matilda’s in reaching the semi-final of the FIFA women’s world cup, held in Australia, captivated the nation as did the failure of the Voice to Parliament referendum.

Keeping a watchful eye on guidance

Against this backdrop the FIRST Edition, the monthly newsletter published by FIRST Advisers, story that our audience found most captivating was the Approach to Guidance in 2023 and Same Day Reporting blog in August. It is not really surprising that, faced with economic headwinds of rising inflation, input costs and interest rates, companies are keen to know how their guidance compares to their peers and the wider market. Our analysis of reporting patterns revealed 81% of companies include some form of guidance in their 2023 Full Year results up from 53% in 2022.

Push back on the role of ESG

ESG has been another theme that has featured in our reviews of the most read FIRST Edition content of recent years. This year the Can ESG survive the political pushback? Blog was the second most viewed. It looked at the conflicting forces of investors desire for companies to embed ESG standards and principles in their disclosures and ‘anti-woke’ regulations seeking to dictate what factors institutional investors can consider when managing investments.

ESG issues, as a focus area for investors and Proxy Advisors, also featured in the third most clicked on newsletter article, Key Trends Leading into the 2023 AGM Season, alongside remuneration reports and Board composition. We noted HESTA as a front runner in promoting active investment to influence companies around addressing climate change rather than divestment.

How to win friends and influence people

Understanding the voting intention of institutional investors ahead of an AGM was at the core of our 4th most read article – Proxy Management and the Value of Vote Tracking. FIRST Advisers vote tracking, which combines our leading in-house shareholder analytics with expert Investor Relations advice, creates opportunities for companies to engage with the key shareholders to ensure they are fully informed and potentially create a favourable change in their voting intentions.

Rounding out our top 5 newsletter articles in the Using ASX Guidance Note 8 to Manage Earnings Surprises from back in May. This article explored how a company can assess if they are likely to surprise the market with an earnings announcement. We highlighted how a company needs to assess the impact on share valuation rather simply the magnitude of the earnings surprise when deciding what needs to be disclosed. In retrospect the interest on this earnings surprises blog may have foreshadowed the levels of interest we saw in our analysis of corporate guidance in the most clicked on blog in August.

Keeping a finger on the pulse of 2024

The jury is still out on whether we are at the end of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate rising cycle and what impact the rises that have already been announced will have on listed companies into 2024. As for inflation, Australian CPI came in at 5.4% in the September quarter, which is much higher than the RBA’s target of 2% to 3%. There is, however, evidence of a deceleration in inflation, CPI was at 6% in the June quarter and 7% in the March quarter.

As 2023 draws to a close it does feels like we are near a peak in the rate rising cycle and FIRST Advisers, through our FIRST Edition newsletter, will continue to provide insights and updates on key issues of interest to investor relations in 2024. As an integrated IR consultancy, we combine expert advice backed by our leading edge, in-house analytics capabilities to add value to a company’s IR function and help build a supportive shareholder base. We also offer our best wishes to our clients and business partners for the festive period.


5 September 2023

Approach to Guidance in 2023 and Same Day reporting


VICTORIA GEDDES, Executive Director Over the past four months we have monitored companies in the ASX 300 Index reporting their full year results. Around 70% of companies in the S&P/ASX 300 index released their results for FY23 during August 2023. Companies return to providing guidance The majority of companies (81%) reporting their full year results this year […]

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29 May 2023

Using ASX Guidance Note 8 to Manage Earnings Surprises


ROWAN CLARKE, Investor Relations Companies with a June year-end are entering a busy time, as they prepare to report their full year earnings. In parallel, the market is constantly forming a view of what those earnings will be. Consequently, there may be a need for a company to take action if the market’s expectations of […]

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12 December 2022

Travelling at the speed of change, 2022 in review


GILES RAFFERTY, Corporate Communications and Media US founding father, Benjamin Franklin, said “nothing is certain except death and taxes”. Had he been in a more expansive mood he may have included ‘change’ as another certainty. 2022 has been a year of change. We welcomed Queen Elizabeth’s Platinum Jubilee and mourned her passing. We celebrated the […]

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3 October 2022

FIRST Advisers FY23 Guidance Report


SALONI SURI, Shareholder Analytics During August we monitored companies in the ASX300 Index that reported for the period ending 30 June 2022 (FY22). Around 80% of companies in the S&P/ASX 300 index released their results during August 2022, with large companies particularly well represented.  This enabled us to build a representative picture of the approach […]

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4 March 2021

The return of Guidance


DAN JONES, MANAGER SHAREHOLDER ANALYTICS In April 2020, we wrote that more than 80% of companies withdrew their FY20 guidance amid uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. During the February 2021 earnings season, we recommenced monitoring the results of S&P/ASX300 companies to establish to what extent the provision of guidance has been re-adopted and how companies are viewing […]

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31 January 2021

ASX introduces new ‘15% Rule’


Ben Rebbeck, Founding Director Recently, the ASX announced updates to Guidance Note 8 on continuous disclosure requirements in relation to earnings guidance. While the ASX retained the framework of its existing guidance in the update, its changes to Guidance Note 8 include a new ‘15% Rule’ regarding the impact of broker consensus earnings on guidance and earnings […]

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11 December 2020

2020! A year like no other


2020 was a year filled with extreme and extraordinary events. All of which played out in the context of the extraordinary global health crisis that is the Coronavirus pandemic. A year of extremes Here in Australia we endured bush fire disasters, the death of the Holden car brand and the tragedy of SAS war crimes […]

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28 September 2020

TOP TEN TIPS FOR IPO COMPANIES


VICTORIA GEDDES, Executive Director. As the market braces for an avalanche of IPOs to hit the market in the December quarter, it is time to review our playbook for IPO investor relations, to highlight just what it takes to maximise the chances of a successful life after listing. Here are our top 10 Investor Relations tips […]

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30 April 2020

Disclosure and guidance during COVID-19


VICTORIA GEDDES, Executive Director. ASX Compliance Updates with some reminders on Disclosure Rules on Earnings Guidance Since the end of February 2020, ASX has released three key Compliance Updates (28 February, 31 March and 22 April) which include a raft of amendments or reminders, prompted in the main by the challenges associated with the impact […]

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30 March 2020

Guidance in Uncertain Times


VICTORIA GEDDES, Executive Director Guidance and outlook statements, freshly minted from the February reporting season, are already being consigned to the waste paper basket. This makes sense when every week brings a new development that has the potential to threaten the very survival of many businesses. So what do you say to your shareholders when […]

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3 September 2019

FIRST Advisers Annual Guidance Report – FY20


DAN JONES, MANAGER SHAREHOLDER ANALYTICS During August we monitored companies in the S&P/ASX300 Index that reported for the period ending 30 June 2019, building a picture of the approach to guidance in this market and what that guidance is telling us about outlook for FY20. Victoria Geddes, Co-founding Executive Director at FIRST Advisers said “If […]

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29 March 2019

Feb 2019 Guidance Review


DAN JONES, MANAGER SHAREHOLDER ANALYTICS During February we monitored companies in the S&P/ASX300 Index that reported for the period ending 31 December 2018, building a picture of the approach to guidance in this market and what that guidance is telling us about outlook for FY19. Around three quarters of companies within the S&P/ASX 300 index […]

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31 January 2019

February reporting preview


We entered the last reporting season in August 2018 with a high degree of optimism. That optimism was very short-lived as markets experienced a sharp sell-off in August, with actual results falling short of previous forecasts. Subsequently, news headlines have kept investors in a pessimistic mood, examples being the ongoing Brexit uncertainty and the ever-present […]

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31 January 2019

Timing Matters When Releasing Results


It is important for a company to select an appropriate day when presenting its financial results.  With so many companies competing for attention from buy-side, sell-side and financial media, the correct timing of a result can be very important, especially for smaller companies. Understanding where the peaks and troughs are during a reporting season can help […]

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3 September 2018

Who, What & How Much? What FY19 Guidance is Telling Us


Dan Jones, Manager Shareholder Analytics During August we monitored all companies in the S&P/ASX300 Index that reported for the period ending 30 June 2018, building a picture of the approach to guidance in this market and what that guidance is telling us about outlook. Almost 250 companies within the S&P/ASX 300 index gave their results […]

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27 July 2018

LOOK TO YOUR GUIDANCE


Ben Rebbeck, Executive Director As we enter the 2018 results reporting season, earnings and operational guidance again becomes a topic of significant concern. Recently in the US, industry leaders including Warren Buffett and Jamie Dimon joined the debate arguing that public companies should reduce or eliminate the practice of estimating quarterly earnings (EPS), as this […]

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5 March 2018

Analysing Guidance – February 2018


Dan Jones, Shareholder Analytics and IR During February we monitored all companies in the S&P/ASX300 Index that reported for the period ending 31 December 2017, building a picture of the approach to guidance in this market and what that guidance is telling us about the outlook for FY2018. There were 214 companies within the S&P/ASX […]

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2 August 2017

Trading Updates for FY17 Reported in July


As a precursor to monitoring how companies provide guidance for FY18, we have been tracking Trading Updates for FY17 that were released during July by ASX300 companies (only 4%). The take-outs are as follows: 42% provided an upgrade from their previous guidance with the price performance experiencing a similar upward trend 33% of the companies […]

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9 June 2017

The Importance of Non-Financial Information


NIRI Annual Conference 2017 Ben Rebbeck, Executive Director On 4 June 2017, the National Investor Relations Institute (NIRI) Annual Conference got underway in Orlando, Florida. This Conference brings together over one thousand of the world’s thought leaders and senior professionals in Investor Relations and it is one that we have been attending religiously for the past […]

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5 July 2016

Surviving Brexit: Disclosure and guidance in uncertain times


Ben Rebbeck, Executive Director If there is one consistent thing the financial markets are saying about Brexit, it’s that there are uncertain times ahead for every major economy – and by extension, for the prospects and financial performance of every major company. When uncertainty reigns, we often hear management or Boards describe disclosure and guidance […]

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1 July 2015

ASX’s New Continuous Disclosure Guidelines Apply From Today


Philippa Ellis, Corporate Governance & Company Secretarial ASX Guidance Note 8 Continuous Disclosure (GN8), which expands the guidance on earnings surprises, publication of analyst forecasts and consensus estimates, and investor briefings, comes into force today (July 1). The ASX released its consultation paper outlining its proposed changes to GN8 in March 2015. On June 22 […]

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18 May 2015

Guidance to go out of fashion?


The new ASX guidelines may discourage companies from making earnings predictions public The proposed changes to the guidelines for listed companies on their continuous disclosure obligations (ASX Guidance Note 8) will provide greater clarity and a more pragmatic approach for companies that find themselves facing a sudden change in their profit expectations and want to […]

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18 February 2015

ASIC Revisits Guidelines on Collective Action by Investors


The Australian Securities and Investments Commission is revisiting its guidelines around collective action by institutional investors and calling for public comment. This has become a hotter topic in the past few years with the increasing assertiveness of activist shareholders and recognition that collective action by investors can be good for financial markets.

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